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# Zero-Click Revision, YouTube Drop, Twitter Wipeout?
- URL: https://www.nearmedia.co/zero-click-revision-youtube-ads-decline-twitter-wipeout/
- Published: 2022-10-26T19:02:56.000Z
- Updated: 2022-11-03T04:10:53.000Z
- Author: Greg Sterling
- Tags: News

### Study: Zero-Clicks Only 25% 

A much-cited, 2020 [study](https://sparktoro.com/blog/in-2020-two-thirds-of-google-searches-ended-without-a-click/?ref=nearmedia.co) from Rand Fishkin's SparkToro and SimilarWeb argued that 65% of searches on Google were "zero-click." In other words, two-thirds of queries didn't result in a click to a third party website. That study generated considerable criticism of Google across the industry. However, a new desktop and mobile search [study from Semrush](https://www.semrush.com/blog/zero-clicks-study/?ref=nearmedia.co) finds a much lower percentage of true zero-click searches: only 25% of desktop queries and 17% of mobile searches. The Semrush (US) analysis looked at more than 600K queries from 20K searchers in May. The actions captured were: zero-clicks, organic clicks, paid clicks, Google tab clicks (e.g., images) and keyword refinement (second search w/o a click). Worth a deeper dive, the study contains more data and nuance, including the difference between desktop and mobile search behaviors. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/03/80/0380d96d-ef7e-450e-96b3-2963e18aaab5/content/images/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-26-at-10.03.38-AM.png)

Source: Semrush

**Our take:** 

- Organic clicks dominate with nearly equivalent numbers for desktop and mobile (43% vs. 45%). Paid clicks: 1.8% on desktop, 2% on mobile.
- The data appears to suggest only limited engagement with local (Maps) but local wasn't really investigated in the study.
- If you add "zero-clicks," "Google clicks" and "Google keyword" (refinement), it's not that far from the SparkToro number (\~65%).

### Google Q3 Was a Miss

Google reported [Q3 revenues](https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2022Q3%5Falphabet%5Fearnings%5Frelease.pdf?ref=nearmedia.co) of just over $69 billion, representing just 6% revenue growth. That was down from 41% a year ago. It was a nearly $2 billion miss; Wall Street expected $71 billion. Total ad revenue grew 2.5% to $54.5 billion, below estimates, while paid search revenue was $39.5 billion. Overall, Google profit was down about 27%. (Google still made a ton of money; don't feel sorry.) The big story, however, was YouTube. The video site saw its revenues decline, for the first time, by almost 2% to $7.1 billion (again a massive amount of money). Suddenly, YouTube seems less a growth engine than it previously did. Microsoft, which also reported yesterday, [beat analyst expectations](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/microsoft-msft-earnings-q1-2023.html??ref=nearmedia.co) but offered weak guidance, disappointing investors. Still, LinkedIn and paid-search revenue were up by double digits. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/03/80/0380d96d-ef7e-450e-96b3-2963e18aaab5/content/images/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-26-at-11.41.04-AM.png)

Source: Google

**Our take:** 

- TikTok and the [ad pullback](https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/378942/us-ad-market-falls-for-fourth-consecutive-month.html?ref=nearmedia.co) are seen as responsible for YouTube's deceleration.
- On the earnings call, Google argued that YouTube is still positioned for strong growth. For example, YouTube Shorts has 1.5B monthly users.
- Google should see much better Q4 results, as retailers and others compete for holiday consumer spending.

### Twitter Heading for a Wipeout?

Social media is either in turmoil or experiencing reinvigorated competition, depending on your perspective. Snap is facing an identity crisis, Meta [is unfocused](https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18?ref=nearmedia.co), TikTok and [BeReal](https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/20/sources-bereal-raised-60m-in-its-series-b-earlier-this-year-now-has-20m-daus/?ref=nearmedia.co) are surging and a host of smaller services (e.g., Discord, Telegram, Geneva) are an [emerging threat](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-responds-to-its-next-threat-apps-that-link-instagram-influencers-and-superfans??ref=nearmedia.co) to incumbents. Twitter, for its part, appears to be ready to crash and burn. [Chief Twit](https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref=nearmedia.co) Elon Musk [says](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/musk-expected-close-twitter-deal-by-friday-bloomberg-news-2022-10-25/?ref=nearmedia.co) he will close the deal this week. He then plans mass layoffs, as much as 75% of Twitter staff according to documents [seen by the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts/?ref=nearmedia.co). Reportedly, Musk also wants lean more heavily on subscription revenue than advertising, which was only $5 billion last year. Forcing subscriptions or gating content will further diminish ad revenue potential. Add to this the [revelation](https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/?ref=nearmedia.co) that Twitter is losing its most active users. An internal report seen by Reuters says that "heavy tweeters" – 10% of users, responsible for 90% of tweets and 50% of revenue – are in "absolute decline." Musk also wants to make Twitter [a free-speech utopia](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/08/1127689351/elon-musk-calls-himself-a-free-speech-absolutist-what-could-twitter-look-like-un?ref=nearmedia.co) (read: low/no moderation). What you've got is a wipeout waiting to happen. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/03/80/0380d96d-ef7e-450e-96b3-2963e18aaab5/content/images/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-26-at-11.15.51-AM.png)

Source: [Akshar Dave/](https://unsplash.com/@akshar%5Fdave?utm%5Fsource=unsplash&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcontent=creditCopyText)[Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/s/photos/twitter?utm%5Fsource=unsplash&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcontent=creditCopyText)

**Our take:** 

- People believe that Twitter is bloated and needs to be "right-sized." They also defend Musk's track record at other places.
- Some layoffs may be justified but mass cuts will decimate morale and make Twitter an unproductive and even toxic place to work.
- It will be impossible for Musk to make mass cuts and comply with app-store rules (around hate speech/violent rhetoric) and the EU's [DSA](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA%5F20%5F2348?ref=nearmedia.co).

## Recent Analysis

- ****Near Memo episode 86**: [Krystal Taing joins us to discuss: (Google 3-Pack) New Branded Ads, GBP Neglect, and Container Retail Models](https://www.nearmedia.co/ep-86/).

## Short Takes

- **GBP** suspensions, bug fix and "[reinstatement chaos](https://www.brightlocal.com/blog/google-business-profile-suspension-reinstatement-bug-chaos/?ref=nearmedia.co)."
- **LinkedIn** has [a major fake accounts problem](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/tech/linkedin-bot-fake-accounts-new-features/index.html?ref=nearmedia.co); user verification coming.
- **Valpak** to start [selling](https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/379090/valpak-gets-into-data-business.html?ref=nearmedia.co) its customer data to other companies.
- Post-Bezos **Amazon** [loses its luster](https://www.retaildive.com/news/Amazon-forecast-lowered-Q3/634784/?ref=nearmedia.co) for investors, analysts.
- Outdoor retailer **North Face** plans to open [70 more stores](https://www.retaildive.com/news/the-north-face-to-open-over-70-stores-in-north-america/634765/?ref=nearmedia.co).
- OMG: **Mr. Beast** [trying to raise](https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/25/mrbeast-1-5-billion-valuation-youtuber/?ref=nearmedia.co) $150M at a $1.5B valuation.
- Consumers can now use **Venmo** to [pay for things on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/stores/page/D805D27F-AF38-4A52-ACD9-B965E1BDFB67?ref=nearmedia.co).
- With **Passkeys** the [days of the password are numbered](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/10/passkeys-microsoft-apple-and-googles-password-killer-are-finally-here/?ref=nearmedia.co).
- **Apple** [wants 30%](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/25/23423637/apple-app-store-tax-boosted-social-media-posts?ref=nearmedia.co) of Facebook/Instagram "boosted posts" revenue.
- Shutterstock recognizes threat to business, [partners with](https://www.shutterstock.com/press/20435?ref=nearmedia.co) **OpenAI**.
- Resonai’s hopes to [create](http://www.prweb.com/releases/2022/10/prweb18977594.htm?ref=nearmedia.co) "**digital twins**" of every commercial building.
- **Meta** investor [seeks](https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18?ref=nearmedia.co) $10B headcount reduction, less metaverse $$.
- Unauthorized **celebrity deepfakes** starting to appear in ads ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/deepfakes-of-celebrities-have-begun-appearing-in-ads-with-or-without-their-permission-11666692003??ref=nearmedia.co)).
- **Snap** [closes](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/snapchat-closes-san-francisco-office-17530730.php?ref=nearmedia.co) its 33,000 square-foot San Francisco office.
- As "Q-commerce" falters, **Gopuff** [may crash and burn](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-24/gopuff-layoffs-signal-instant-delivery-s-demise?ref=nearmedia.co#xj4y7vzkg).
- **Mobile app revenue** [down 5%](https://sensortower.com/blog/app-revenue-and-downloads-q3-2022?ref=nearmedia.co) in Q3; installs also down.

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